Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

“WTI has already demonstrated the capacity to approach $120 in the current environment — reaching an intraday high of $119.48 on March 9, 2026, just $0.52 below the threshold. A similar spike now would resolve YES.. Geopolitical tail risk is acute and unresolved: Trump canceled Iran peace talks on the weekend of April 26-27 saying Iran 'offered a lot, but not enough,' and June WTI immediately jumped +2.84%. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, with 9.1 million bpd of production shut-ins and the IEA calling it the 'largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.'.”

“The bull's own evidence is weakly supportive at best: a prior miss at $119.48 in early March does not increase late-April hit odds much when the current state is materially less stressed. Markets usually register the largest risk premium at the first acute supply-shock phase; if $120 did not print during the highest-panic window, the burden for a late-month breach is much higher.. Time-to-expiry is the dominant structural variable. With ~2 trading days left, YES requires a large gap from prevailing levels into a 1-minute print above $120. Even using the research's higher recent figures, that implies roughly a double-digit percentage intraday move almost immediately. Such moves are possible in oil, but they are tail events requiring new information, not mere persistence of already-known conflict conditions..”