Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

“The market is currently priced at only 3% implied probability for YES, but the research describes 'exceptionally high posting cadence' through April 14, which could theoretically land in the 120-139 range if the pace moderates in the final days of the window (April 14-17).. Multiple concurrent policy themes are driving posts — border security, Tax Day (April 15), energy dominance, military operations (Operation Epic Fury), and immigration court reforms — each generating multiple follow-up posts. If these themes produce a steady but not explosive volume, the 120-139 range is plausible as a moderate-high outcome..”

“The market is 2.4 days from expiry with 97% NO pricing — this is not a naive market. With $11,030 in volume and $3,293 in liquidity, traders with direct access to the X posting data have already priced this range as nearly impossible. The 3% price reflects informed participants who can count actual posts through April 14, not speculation.. The research explicitly states the White House has maintained an 'exceptionally high posting cadence' through April 14 — meaning the account is almost certainly already ABOVE 139 posts by mid-window, making the 120-139 range mathematically impossible to hit (you cannot un-post). If they've already exceeded 139 posts by April 14, the market resolves NO with certainty regardless of what happens April 14-17..”