Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

“Multiple independent polls consistently place PP–DB in third position: The CAM poll from April 14, 2026 shows Progressive Bulgaria at 32.1%, GERB at 19.4%, and PP–DB at 12%. The Sova Harris poll (April 2-6) shows a nearly identical ordering: Progressive Bulgaria 33.6%, GERB 19%, PP–DB 11.2%, with DPS at 9.7%. This consistent third-place positioning across pollsters strongly supports a YES resolution.. PP–DB has a substantial margin over the fourth-place party (DPS): In the CAM poll, PP–DB leads DPS by approximately 2-3 percentage points (12% vs. DPS's implied ~9-10%). The Sova Harris poll shows a similar gap (11.2% vs. 9.7%). This buffer makes it unlikely that DPS or another party overtakes PP–DB for third place in the remaining days..”

“The PP–DB lead over DPS is narrow (1.5–2.3 percentage points in polls), well within typical polling error margins of ±2–3%. A single polling miss could flip third and fourth place, especially in a fragmented multi-party system where small shifts matter enormously.. Bulgaria has held seven snap elections since 2021, and each has produced significant polling surprises. The DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms) has historically outperformed polls due to organized vote-buying in minority communities — the very vote-buying raids described in the research (500,000 euros seized, 200 arrested) suggest DPS-linked networks were active, but enforcement is imperfect and some mobilization likely succeeded..”