Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

“Republikon Institute (March 30) forecasts turnout could break the 2002 record of 70.5% due to 'extremely high willingness' and intense Fidesz-Tisza competition, meaning the distribution of possible outcomes has a right tail that extends toward 74%+.. Medián polls report 89% of respondents are 'sure to vote,' which is an unusually high self-reported intention figure. While polls historically overestimate turnout, the gap between 89% stated intent and 74% actual turnout is smaller than the gap between typical stated intent and actual turnout, leaving room for an upside surprise..”

“Historical base rate is definitive: zero out of 10+ Hungarian parliamentary elections since 1990 have ever reached 74% turnout. The all-time record is 70.5% (2002), meaning the 74-77% band requires exceeding the historical maximum by 3.5-6.5 percentage points — an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence.. The bull's '89% sure to vote' Medián figure is a classic stated-intention overestimate. In Hungary's 2022 election, actual turnout was 69.6% despite similarly high stated intentions. The structural gap between stated intent and actual behavior is well-documented globally; 89% stated intent does not translate to 74%+ actual turnout — it would require an unprecedented conversion rate..”