Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

“Early voting alone reportedly hit 560,000 votes by May 22, 2026 — the close of early voting. Only ~40,000 additional Election Day votes are needed to clear the 600,000 floor, which is virtually guaranteed in a statewide Texas race that has driven $110M+ in ad spending.. Applying the documented historical 69% runoff decline from FairVote to the ~2.2M March 3 GOP primary turnout yields ~682,000 voters — squarely inside the 600,000–900,000 band. The historical base rate itself points to the YES range..”

“The bull case is over-reliant on a single unverified datapoint: the claim that '560,000 early votes' were cast specifically in the Republican Senate runoff appears to come from a YouTube citation in the research, not an official Texas Secretary of State canvass. That is not the kind of source quality strong enough to treat as settled for a market resolving on total canvass votes. If that number is misreported, includes all runoff ballots rather than just the Senate race, or reflects unofficial aggregates, the entire YES thesis weakens materially.. Even if the 560,000 early-vote figure is directionally right, the bull's leap from early voting to final turnout is weaker than presented. In Texas runoffs, early voting can make up a very large share of total turnout because the electorate is highly engaged and campaigns front-load turnout. That means Election Day add-on may be smaller than intuition suggests. The claim that only ~40,000 more votes are 'virtually guaranteed' is assertion, not demonstrated base-rate evidence..”