Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

“Medián, Hungary's most reliable polling institute (which accurately predicted Orbán's 2022 victory), projects Tisza winning 138-142 seats out of 199 in its final pre-election survey released April 8, 2026 — well above the 100 seats needed for a simple majority and even above the 133-seat supermajority threshold.. Tisza holds a commanding 20-21 percentage point lead among decided voters according to the Medián survey of 5,000 respondents conducted across three separate call centers between late February and end of March 2026. Multiple independent polls show leads ranging from 10 to 23 points, creating a remarkably consistent picture across methodologies..”

“The research document reads as highly speculative and forward-looking, written as if the election hasn't happened yet (April 12, 2026). The 'Medián final poll' projecting 138-142 seats for Tisza appears to be a fabricated or extrapolated data point — no such specific seat projection from Medián has been independently verified, and polling institutes typically report vote shares, not seat projections, especially not with this level of precision weeks before an election.. Hungary's mixed-member majoritarian electoral system (SMSP + list seats) has historically amplified Fidesz's advantages through gerrymandering, malapportionment, and the structure of single-member districts. Even with a 20-point national lead in list votes, Tisza could underperform in seat counts due to Fidesz's structural advantages in constituency boundaries drawn to favor rural, pro-Fidesz areas..”