Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Polymarket · 39d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.00
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

6%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
95%
Bull
96%
Bear
91%
Bulls say
Thrash is already confirmed #1 in the US Netflix Top 10 as of April 12, 2026, based on real-time daily rankings, placing it firmly at the top during the measurement window (April 7-13) that the April 14 publication will reflect.. Thrash accumulated 927 FlixPatrol ranking points globally as of April 12, more than double the second-place title (Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov at 427 points), demonstrating overwhelming dominance with no close competitor..
Bears say
The Netflix official Top 10 list (top10.netflix.com) measures weekly hours viewed, NOT daily ranking points from FlixPatrol. FlixPatrol uses a proprietary scoring system based on daily chart positions across countries — this is a proxy metric, not the actual Netflix measurement methodology. A film could dominate FlixPatrol points while losing the official Netflix hours-viewed ranking to a title with steadier, broader viewership.. The measurement window is April 7-13, but Thrash only released April 10. That means 3 of the 7 days in the measurement window had zero Thrash viewership. A pre-existing title with strong sustained viewership across all 7 days could accumulate more total weekly hours than Thrash's 4-day burst, especially if Thrash's audience is concentrated in a single demographic..

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