Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?

“Historical base rates strongly favor YES: The USGS records approximately 120-150 M5.5+ earthquakes per month globally, which translates to roughly 28-35 per week, or about 4-5 per day. Over a 7-day window, the expected count is approximately 28-35, far exceeding the threshold of 9. Even at conservative estimates of ~2 per day, a 7-day window would yield ~14 earthquakes, still well above 9.. Three M5.5+ earthquakes have already been confirmed in just the first ~3 days of the window (April 13 Tonga M5.5, April 13-14 Nevada M5.7, April 15 Costa Rica M5.7), and the research notes indicate only events through April 16 at 3 AM UTC have been cataloged. Additional earthquakes may have occurred but not yet been captured in the research snapshot, as USGS data can have reporting delays..”

“The bull's base rate claim of '120-150 M5.5+ earthquakes per month' (~28-35/week) is almost certainly fabricated or grossly inflated. USGS historical data shows approximately 1,300-1,500 M5.0+ earthquakes per year globally, but M5.5+ is a significantly higher threshold. Realistic M5.5+ frequency is closer to 600-800 per year, or roughly 12-15 per week — not 28-35. Even at 12-15/week, the expected count over 7 days would be ~12-15, but the CURRENT window has only produced 3 in ~3 days, suggesting this particular week is running well BELOW the historical average rate.. The critical data point the bull glosses over: only 3 confirmed M5.5+ earthquakes in approximately 3 days elapsed means the current rate is ~1/day, not the 4-5/day the bull claims. With roughly 3.9 days remaining (April 16 3AM UTC to April 19 11:59PM ET), at the observed rate of ~1/day, we'd expect ~4 more events, bringing the total to ~7 — still below the threshold of 10 needed to resolve YES. The market needs 7 MORE events in ~3.9 days; the observed rate supports only ~4..”