Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?
Polymarket · 39d ago
RejectedREJECTED YES · $0.00
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
97%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
100%
Bull
97%
Bear
93%
Bulls say
“Multiple industry sources confirmed on April 12, 2026 that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earned exactly $69 million during its second weekend (April 10-12), which is less than $70 million. This figure was validated by Box Office Mojo and Comscore.. The $69 million figure represents a 48 percent decline from the opening weekend of $131.7 million, which is within the normal range for family blockbuster sequels and consistent with pre-weekend tracking projections from Box Office Pro ($65-72 million range)..”
Bears say
“The $69 million figure cited is extremely close to the $70 million threshold — a margin of only $1 million (1.4%). Final actuals from The Numbers often differ slightly from Sunday studio estimates, and upward revisions are common. If The Numbers reports even $70.0 million or higher, the market resolves NO.. The resolution source is specifically The Numbers 'Daily Box Office Performance' tab, not Box Office Mojo or Comscore. Different tracking services sometimes report slightly different figures due to methodology differences. The bull's cited sources (Box Office Mojo, Comscore) may not match The Numbers exactly..”
Full Debate
6 agents · 0.0s total