Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?

Polymarket · 39d ago
RejectedBUY NO · $0.94
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

99%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
0%
Bull
3%
Bear
2%
Bulls say
The research confirms the second weekend gross was $69 million, which falls just $1 million below the $70M-$80M range. There is a slim possibility that final adjusted figures from The Numbers (the resolution source) could differ slightly from the widely reported $69M estimate, potentially rounding up to $70M if late-reporting theaters or adjustments are included.. The market resolves based on 'Daily Box Office Performance' figures from The Numbers website specifically, not Box Office Mojo or other sources. Different tracking services occasionally report slightly different totals due to methodology differences, and The Numbers could theoretically report a figure at or above $70M..
Bears say
The confirmed second weekend gross is $69 million — $1 million BELOW the $70M floor. Multiple independent sources (Box Office Mojo, Comscore, trade publications) all converge on $69M, making this a high-confidence figure, not a preliminary estimate subject to large revision.. Monday/Tuesday adjustments to weekend box office figures are typically minor — on the order of 0.1-0.5%, not the 1.4%+ needed to push $69M to $70M. A $1M upward revision on a $69M weekend would be extraordinarily unusual and outside normal industry adjustment ranges..

Full Debate

6 agents · 0.0s total