Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?

“Overwhelming economist consensus: 28 of 29 economists surveyed May 18-22 expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.25% on May 27 — a 97% consensus that strongly anchors the outcome.. Recent precedent and strong MPC consensus: The April 2026 decision was UNANIMOUS to hold, with Governor Breman explicitly stating they 'were not close to a rate hike today in any way' and that there was 'definitely no discussion or strong advocates for hiking.' Such strong recent guidance is rarely reversed in a single intervening meeting..”

“The bull's edge is overstated because much of the cited research appears internally inconsistent or weakly sourced. Examples: 'current date of May 25, 2026' is incompatible with the system date; inflation is described as 'most recent official inflation data' from July 2025, which is obviously stale for a May 2026 decision; and several historical/statistical claims tagged [28] (e.g. hold-frequency percentages, divided-vote transition rates, inflation-target success rates) are unsupported in the provided material. That does not prove YES is wrong, but it does mean a 94% claim is not evidence-based.. Economist survey consensus is informative but not dispositive, especially with only 29 respondents and only ~2 days to expiry. A 28/29 survey result still leaves nontrivial probability that the decision deviates from consensus, particularly when the central bank itself has emphasized data dependence and the market resolves on the actual OCR change, not on median expectations. Consensus forecasts often cluster around the modal outcome and underprice tail policy actions..”