Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?

“Reuters poll (May 22, 2026) shows 19 of 27 economists (70%) projecting RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% at the May meeting, with no surveyed economist consensus for an immediate hike.. NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board (May 22, 2026) is 'overwhelmingly in favour' of holding at 2.25%, with 10 of 12 members supporting a hold — independent expert validation aligned with RBNZ's framework..”

“The bull case is materially overstated because a 70% economist poll is not equivalent to a 96% event probability. Even if the Reuters figure is accurate, 19/27 implies meaningful disagreement, not near-certainty; with central-bank event risk, a 30% dissent share is far too large to justify a 0.96 YES price.. Several statistical claims in the research appear unverified or likely fabricated/unsupported from the provided evidence: e.g. 'average of 4.7 consecutive meetings' during overshoots, '83% of cases' when core inflation is contained, '88% of cases' after a 0.2pp inflation surprise, '100% of cases' under geopolitical tension, and '82% accuracy' for the Shadow Board. These precise historical frequencies are presented without transparent sourcing and should not be relied on..”