Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 17?

“SOL achieved a 6.10% single-day rally on April 13 (from ~$81.54 to $86.51), demonstrating that the magnitude of move required (~6.2% from $84.86 to $90) is within recent realized volatility. The ATR-based daily volatility is approximately 4.48 points or 5.2% of current price, meaning a move to $90 is roughly 1.4 standard deviations — which occurs ~15-16% of the time under normal distribution assumptions.. Solana's fundamentals have dramatically improved while price has declined 71% from ATH ($294.33 on Jan 19, 2025 to ~$85). The Alpenglow upgrade delivered sub-150ms finality (down from 12 seconds), daily non-vote transactions hit 148 million (historic highs), and monthly token holders reached an all-time record of 167 million. This fundamental-price divergence historically resolves through sharp countertrend rallies..”

“The bull's core volatility argument is structurally flawed: citing a 15-16% probability from normal distribution assumptions ignores that the current setup is explicitly non-normal — a bearish consolidation with confirmed overhead resistance at $90.91 (SAR), $94-100 (four prior rejections), and all major moving averages aligned as resistance. Constrained consolidation ranges suppress tail probabilities on the upside, not amplify them.. The April 13 rally cited by the bull (6.10% single-day gain) was immediately reversed the very next session (-3.23% on April 14), demonstrating that even when SOL achieves the required magnitude of move, it fails to sustain above $90. This is not evidence FOR the bull case — it is evidence that $90 acts as a hard ceiling that rejects rallies even when momentum is present..”