Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17?

“Bitcoin has demonstrated multiple 4-5% daily moves in the past week alone: April 9 saw a 4.5% surge on ceasefire news, and April 14 saw a 5.34% 24-hour gain. The required move to $78,000 from ~$74,700 is approximately 4.4%, which is squarely within the range of recently realized daily moves.. A massive $6 billion in leveraged short positions were identified at risk in the $72,000-$73,500 band, and the liquidation cascade mechanism that triggered $427 million in forced short covering on April 9 could repeat at higher levels. If Bitcoin breaks decisively above $75,000-$75,770 (the April 14 high), a similar cascade of short liquidations could propel price rapidly toward $78,000..”

“The bull's core argument relies on recent 4-5% daily moves, but those moves (April 9 ceasefire catalyst, April 14 momentum continuation) were driven by discrete, identifiable macro catalysts. No comparable catalyst is scheduled or announced for April 16-17. Extrapolating from catalyst-driven volatility to baseline daily move probability is a fundamental statistical error — it conflates tail events with base rates.. The bull cites '$6 billion in leveraged short positions at risk' as a potential liquidation cascade trigger, but this figure referred to positions concentrated in the $72,000-$73,500 band — a band Bitcoin has already cleared. The liquidation inventory at those levels has already been consumed. New short positions rebuilt above $74,000 are at different price levels and likely smaller in aggregate, making a repeat cascade mechanically less probable..”