Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?

“No meeting is currently scheduled for May 7-10: Research confirms no US State Department or Iranian Foreign Ministry announcement for the remaining 4-day window, and diplomatic meetings of this significance typically require 48-72 hours of advance notice for delegation preparation and travel.. The most recent scheduled meeting (May 4) was explicitly canceled by Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi citing 'technical reasons,' demonstrating the fragility of any planned engagement and setting a precedent for further delay..”

“The bull case is overstated because much of the supplied 'research' relies on weak or non-primary sourcing, and some claims are plainly not robust evidence. In particular, using Polymarket itself as proof that no meeting is scheduled is circular, not independent verification; citing Wikipedia/YouTube/global-political-spotlight as confirmation for live diplomatic facts is not strong evidence; and the claim that deadlines within 72 hours resolve toward NO with '>95% probability' is unsupported in the provided material and should be treated as fabricated or at least unverified.. The market resolves on whether the next diplomatic meeting occurs after May 10, and the definition is broader than a formal summit. It requires only a deliberate meeting between official representatives acting in an official capacity. That materially lowers the bar: a short sideline meeting, mediated session, emergency deconfliction meeting, or hastily arranged encounter could qualify even without a public preannouncement. The bull argument assumes only publicly announced, high-level, in-person summits matter; that is not what the market description says..”