Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.74
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
83%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
17%
Key Factors
- CMA official forecast is 24°C, not 25°C
- Only AccuWeather forecasts exactly 25°C among three sources
- Overcast/cloudy conditions suppress heating below average
- Forecast error distribution gives ~17% chance of hitting exactly 25°C bin
- Historical April average high is 22-23°C, making 25°C above average
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total