Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.76
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
86%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
14%
Key Factors
- Forecast models suggest ~27°C for April 9, well above 22°C
- Recent actuals (24-26°C) indicate above-average warmth
- Single integer bin (22°C) captures only ~5-10% of the temperature distribution
- 3-day forecast uncertainty still allows for surprises but 22°C requires a significant cool-down
- Climatological average of ~22-23°C provides some base support but is overridden by near-term forecasts
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total