Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 8?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.82
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
83%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
17%
Key Factors
- Historical April average high in Wuhan is 20-22°C, centering near 21°C
- Forecast models cluster 20-22°C for April 8
- Spring variability of 2-3°C means any single 1°C bucket has ~15-20% probability
- Market price of $0.17 appears well-calibrated to the evidence
- Uncertainty about exact resolution criteria (1°C bin width) affects estimate
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total