Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 8?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.93
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
93%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
7%
Key Factors
- CMA forecast centers on 20°C, not 18°C - 18°C is in the lower tail
- Heavy rain on April 8 could suppress temperatures but models already account for this
- Exact single-degree resolution makes any specific value unlikely
- Model ensemble spread suggests 7% probability for exactly 18°C
- Cooling from 26°C on April 6 to forecast 20°C on April 8 suggests a front, but 18°C would require even more suppression than forecast
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total