Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.71
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
75%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
25%
Key Factors
- EC forecast of 1°C high — center of distribution is below 2°C
- Forecast uncertainty (SD ~1.5°C) makes 2°C bucket plausible but not most likely
- Market resolution likely uses temperature ranges/rounding, not exact values
- Cold anomaly and post-frontal conditions favor lower temperatures
- 1-day forecast horizon limits but doesn't eliminate uncertainty
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total