Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on March 30?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.88
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
87%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
87%
Key Factors
- Environment Canada official forecast of 19°C for March 30 at <24hr lead time
- March 29 already recorded 19°C, confirming warm air mass in place
- Conflicting hourly forecast showing only 9°C introduces meaningful uncertainty
- March 2026 has been anomalously warm throughout
- Historical base rate for 15°C+ on March 30 is low (~10-15%) but current conditions far exceed normal
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total