Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 9?

Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.87
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

87%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
13%
Key Factors
  • Environment Canada forecast of 14°C high
  • 3-day forecast uncertainty SD ~2.5°C
  • 15°C bin is 1°C wide requiring precise outcome
  • Market price of 14% aligns with forecast-based probability

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total