Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 30?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.09
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
10%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
10%
Key Factors
- Exactly 21°C is a narrow 1-degree bin target
- Forecasts are mixed: some show 17°C, others 21-22°C
- Historical late March average high is ~15°C, making 21°C above average but not extreme
- Only 0.5 days to expiry reduces but doesn't eliminate forecast uncertainty
- Market appears fairly priced at 9%
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total