Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.90
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
91%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
9%
Key Factors
- AccuWeather forecasts 21°C for April 9, below the 23°C target
- Climatological average for early April is 22-24°C, making 23°C plausible but not the most likely outcome
- Exact integer temperature matching inherently has low probability (~10-15% for values near the mean)
- Recent below-average temperature trend supports forecast of 21°C
- 3-day forecast uncertainty (SD ~2°C) leaves some probability mass at 23°C
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total