Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.79
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
82%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Forecast consensus clusters around 20-21°C, slightly below the 22°C target
- Climatological average is 22°C but current pattern is running slightly below normal
- 3-day forecast window still has meaningful uncertainty (~2°C SD)
- NOAA rounding conventions and exact resolution range definition are critical unknowns
- Sea breeze and cloud cover effects may cap temperatures below 22°C
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total