Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 7?

“The climatological average for April highs in Tel Aviv at Ben Gurion Airport is 22-24°C, with a 23°C average from 10-year ERA5 records, indicating 22°C is a highly typical temperature for the month.. Despite recent cooler temperatures, ensemble spreads from models like ECMWF include scenarios for 21-22°C, with 14-22% probability, suggesting that 22°C is within the plausible range of outcomes..”

“Climatology is irrelevant 48 hours out: The bull relies on historical April averages (22-24°C), but short-range deterministic models (GFS, ECMWF, IMS) explicitly forecast a high of 19-20°C due to a persistent cool anomaly.. The bull misrepresents ensemble probabilities: The cited 14-22% probability is for a combined '21-22°C' range, meaning the probability of landing exactly in the 22°C bucket is structurally much lower (likely <10%)..”