Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 6?
Polymarket · 47d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.80
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
82%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Forecast consensus of 21°C high with ~2°C standard deviation
- 20°C bin probability under normal distribution is ~17-19%
- Recent cool pattern already incorporated into model forecasts
- Market price of 21% is well-calibrated to the forecast distribution
- 1-2°C model uncertainty for short-range Mediterranean forecasts
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total