Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 8?

Polymarket · 47d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.93
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
  • Resolution is at Changi Airport specifically, which is coastal and cooler than inland stations
  • Recent Changi observations: 33°C on April 3 and 4, just below the 34°C threshold
  • MSS forecasts thundery afternoon showers on most days, which cap peak temperatures
  • Inter-monsoon conditions produce occasional 34°C+ days but not as the modal outcome
  • No specific April 8 forecast indicating unusual clearing or heat spike

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total