Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2?

“Ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models (GFS, ECMWF, and CMA) indicate a high temperature around 26°C exactly for April 2.. The historical April average high temperature in Shenzhen is approximately 26°C, aligning perfectly with the target temperature..”

“The bull's 45% probability for a single-degree temperature bin is statistically unsupportable; with a historical standard deviation of 2-3°C, the base rate for any specific 1°C bin is at most 15-20%, even if it is the exact mean.. Current meteorological models show a wide spread of 24-29°C due to uncertain cloud cover and thundershowers, indicating high variance that dilutes the probability mass across multiple temperature bins..”