Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 30?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.83
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
87%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
13%
Key Factors
- Ensemble models forecast 18-21°C, above 17°C
- Recent observations show warming trend (22°C on March 28, 18°C on March 29)
- Base rate for any exact degree is ~10-20%
- 17°C is near climatological average but below current forecast central tendency
- Wide spread ($0.17) eliminates marginal trading edge
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total