Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 5?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.95
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
4%
Key Factors
- Forecast consensus of 13-15°C for April 5 at Incheon/Seoul area
- Exactly 11°C is below the 10th percentile for early April climatology
- No cold front or unusual weather pattern expected
- Resolution at Incheon airport (coastal) vs Seoul center — minor difference
- Market already priced at ~4% which aligns with historical base rate and forecast
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total