Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 48d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.93
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
94%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
6%
Key Factors
- Historical early April highs in Seoul/Incheon average 14-16°C, making 10°C well below normal
- No evidence of unusual cold front for April 7
- Probability of high falling in 10°C bin is historically ~3-7%
- Market price of 7% aligns closely with base rate estimate
- Lack of actual April 7 forecast limits confidence
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total