Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.66
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- Forecast mean likely around 55-56°F, slightly below the 56-57°F bin
- GFS/ECMWF ensembles cluster below 56°F suggesting cool bias
- AccuWeather point forecast of 57°F is in the bin but may be optimistic
- 2°F bin is narrow - most probability mass falls outside any specific 2°F range
- Forecast uncertainty at 2-day horizon reduces SD to ~3-4°F from climatological 6°F
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total