Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 1?

“Seattle's climatological average high for early April is around 55°F, and the overall April average high is 57-59°F, indicating that 54-55°F is a very typical temperature range for this time of year.. Daily highs in Seattle nearly always exceed 50°F in April, establishing a strong baseline for temperatures to be in the lower to mid-50s..”

“The bull commits a fundamental forecasting error by relying on climatological base rates (historical averages) when a highly accurate 24-hour deterministic forecast is available.. Current NWS, GFS, and ECMWF models unanimously project highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, requiring a significant 3-5°F forecast error just to reach the bottom of the target range..”