Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.74
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- April climatological high in São Paulo averages 25-27°C, making 27°C plausible but not the most likely single outcome
- Forecast disagreement (25-28°C) creates substantial uncertainty
- Rain possibility could suppress highs below 27°C
- 3-day forecast uncertainty (SD ~2°C) spreads probability across multiple degree bins
- Resolution criteria ambiguity (exact degree vs range) affects probability estimate
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total