Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 8?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.87
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
- April climatology at SFO averages ~63-64°F high, making 70-71°F above average but not extreme
- Forecast consensus centers on 67-69°F, putting 70-71°F in the upper tail
- Heat event from April 5-6 is breaking down with marine layer returning
- Narrow 2-degree window makes any specific range unlikely
- 2 days of forecast uncertainty adds some probability to warmer outcomes
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total