Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 1?
Polymarket · 54d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.90
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
90%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
10%
Key Factors
- Conflicting forecasts: 73°F vs 62-65°F for April 1
- Post-heat-wave marine layer return expected to cool temperatures
- Resolution at SFO airport, not downtown SF
- 2°F bin is narrow, limiting probability regardless of forecast
- Historical average high ~63°F for early April with ~5-7°F SD
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total