Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.57
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
- NWS forecast of ~66°F is 3-4°F above the 62-63°F bin
- Model consensus (GFS/ECMWF) centers on 64-66°F
- Typical day-before forecast error at KSFO is ~2-3°F SD
- April climatological average is 64°F, but current forecast is warmer
- Marine layer could cap temperatures but models already account for this
- Narrow 2°F bin inherently has low probability
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total