Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 8?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedBUY NO · $0.88
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
4%
Key Factors
- Current 2-day forecasts converge on ~15°C, 6°C below the 21°C target
- Historical base rate for ≥21°C in early April Paris is only 3-7%
- Rain forecast further suppresses high temperatures
- 2-day weather forecasts are highly accurate for temperature (RMSE ~2°C), making a 6°C miss extremely unlikely
- 90th percentile for early April is only 18-20°C, so 21°C is an outlier even climatologically
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total