Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.89
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
4%
Key Factors
- April climatology in Panama City averages 32°C highs
- Ensemble models favor 32-34°C range
- Exactly 30°C is a narrow temperature bin ~2°C below the mean
- Afternoon showers unlikely to cap highs before peak heating
- Market price of 4% appears well-calibrated
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total