Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.77
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
86%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
14%
Key Factors
- AccuWeather forecast center is ~55°F, putting 52-53°F about 1 SD below the mean
- 2°F bin width inherently limits probability
- 2-day forecast uncertainty (SD ~3-4°F) gives roughly 8-10% chance for this specific bin
- Resolution at LaGuardia vs Central Park forecasts adds minor additional uncertainty
- Market appears to overestimate probability at 23% vs my ~14%
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total