Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 2?
Kalshi · 52d ago
RejectedBUY NO · $0.75
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
- Forecast shows max 7°C, 3°C below the 10°C target
- 1-day forecast errors of 3°C are uncommon (roughly 10-15% of cases)
- Cold air mass in place with snow in early morning
- Even if temp rises more than forecast, must land exactly in 10°C bucket
- Historical April averages suggest 10°C is below normal but possible
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total