Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 12?

“Climatological average high for mid-April Moscow is 10-11°C according to Weather2Travel and Weather Atlas, placing 11°C squarely within the most likely temperature range for this date — it is not an outlier but the climatological norm.. Ensemble models show upper spreads reaching 11°C, with an estimated 14% model-implied probability. If partial clearing occurs and southerly flow strengthens diurnal heating beyond the 10°C consensus, 11°C becomes the natural landing point..”

“The market resolves on a PRECISE 1°C bin (exactly 11°C), not a range. Even if the bull is correct that the climatological average is 10-11°C, that average being near 11°C does NOT mean 11°C is the modal outcome — it means the distribution is centered near there, spreading probability across 8°C, 9°C, 10°C, 11°C, 12°C and beyond. A uniform spread across just 5 bins gives each bin ~20% at best, and the distribution is not uniform.. Consensus forecasts from multiple independent sources (World-Weather.ru at +10°C, Yandex at +9°C) both sit BELOW 11°C. When multiple independent forecast systems agree below the target bin, the probability of hitting exactly 11°C is structurally lower than the bull implies. The bull's '1°C upward surprise' argument cuts both ways — equal probability of a 1°C downward surprise landing at 9°C..”