Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 125d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.78
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
86%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
14%
Key Factors
- Historical April average highs at Malpensa are 17-19°C, making 21°C above average but not extreme
- EaseWeather forecasts 18°C for April 9, suggesting 21°C is unlikely
- Recent warming trend (22-23°C on April 6-8) could moderate the forecast downward less than expected
- A 1°C temperature bucket has inherently low probability (~5-12%) regardless of the mean
- 3 days out, forecast uncertainty is still significant (~3-4°C SD)
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total