Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 2?
Polymarket · 51d ago
SettledBUY NO · $0.78
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
92%
P(NO)
NO
Superforecaster
8%
Key Factors
- Multiple forecasts converge on 16°C high, 4°C below the 20°C target
- Early April climatological average high is ~15-16°C at Milan Malpensa
- Day-before forecast RMSE is typically ~2°C, making a 4°C positive error unlikely (~2 sigma)
- No unusual warm weather system predicted for April 2
- Market appears to overprice the 20°C outcome at 22% implied probability
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total