Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 8?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.47
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
58%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
58%
Key Factors
- April climatological average high of 26-27°C provides a favorable base rate
- Active cold front (Frente Frío 43) suppressing temperatures in early April
- Borderline forecasts of 25-26°C make this genuinely uncertain
- Timing of cold front dissipation relative to April 8 is the key swing factor
- Cloud cover on April 8 will determine whether diurnal heating reaches 26°C
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total