Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 7?

“Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF explicitly project highs of 22–25°C for Mexico City on April 7, directly including 25°C within their forecast range. This indicates that 25°C is a plausible outcome according to leading meteorological models.. Historical data shows that April highs in Mexico City average around 26°C, with daily highs typically ranging from 25–27°C in early April. This base rate suggests that 25°C is a very common temperature for this time of year..”

“The bull commits a fundamental category error by conflating the probability of temperatures reaching '25°C or higher' (50-60%) with the probability of landing exactly in the 25°C bucket. The historical base rate for exactly 25°C is only 10-20%.. While models project a range of 22-25°C, 25°C is the absolute upper bound of this range. Forecasts indicate a mid-level trough bringing cooler northerly flows and persistent clouds, which strongly biases the expected high toward the 22-23°C lower end..”