Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on March 30?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.41
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
62%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
38%
Key Factors
- Forecast center at 21°C, not 20°C
- Forecast uncertainty σ≈1.5°C gives ~21% for exact 20°C bucket
- Market may have real-time temperature data I lack
- Below-average temperatures forecast due to cloud cover and northerly winds
- Low liquidity and wide spread limit trade attractiveness
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total