Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.61
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
68%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
32%
Key Factors
- AEMET city center forecast of 27°C with 1-2°C airport cooling adjustment
- Ensemble spread suggests 25-27°C most likely at airport
- Probability of landing exactly at 26°C vs adjacent integers (25°C or 27°C)
- Clear skies and stable conditions reduce forecast uncertainty
- Wunderground resolution source - integer rounding matters
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total