Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 30?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.19
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
20%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
20%
Key Factors
- AccuWeather forecast high of 18.9°C is 1.1°C below the 20°C target
- Typical forecast error SD of ~1.5°C makes 20°C plausible but not most likely
- Market price of 19% is well-calibrated to the ~20% probability estimate
- No meaningful edge exists - market appears fairly priced
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total