Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.74
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
76%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
24%
Key Factors
- Forecast center is ~18.5-19°C, making 18°C plausible but slightly below the mode
- Recent cooling trend from northerly winds may persist slightly
- ±2°C forecast uncertainty spreads probability across multiple 1°C bins
- Resolution depends on exact Weather Underground reading at Madrid-Barajas
- Market appears fairly priced at 26% — no meaningful edge identified
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total